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When will WoW die?
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Post by
lonewarrior
And just like it does every major patch and expansion, the numbers will swing right back up then level out, same as they do after the dips.
But Adamsm...they haven't.
Blizz has seen zero growth since the end of TBC. Now with Cata the number are shrinking.
The patches did nothing to renew growth in the game. Wrath saw only one spike and that was in the April numbers of 2009. By years end they returned to the end of TBC numbers.
The April numbers of Cata saw a decline when the opposite should have been expected.
These are Blizz stated numbers. No need to go beyond those years since there is no growth and Cata current stated numbers is 11,000,000
01/01/04 - 250000
01/01/05 - 750000
12/01/05 - 5500000
03/01/06 - 6000000
05/01/06 - 6500000
09/01/06 - 7000000
01/01/07 - 8000000
07/01/07 - 9000000
08/01/07 - 9000000
01/01/08 - 10000000
10/01/08 - 11000000
11/01/08 - 11000000
12/01/08 - 11500000
04/01/09- 12000000
So Van/TBC saw yearly growth. Wrath saw zero. Cata is seeing negative numbers.
Currents tend to pull everything in the same direction.
People tend to pull friends/family into a game. They tend to pull them out as well.
I am also going to post a very interesting read for everyone who likes to post Blizz quote numbers. About a year old. Not sure if the link will be removed and I am not posting it as gospel. But it does make for some very revealing numbers.
http://daeity.blogspot.com/2010/08/blizzards-active-subscription-numbers.html
I played the market for many years. On a candle chart... a bearish candle like that April Cata call followed by a second later on, which would have been preceded by Vanilla/TBC Bull candles trends and followed by Wrath Star candle in April 2009 is a baaaadddd sign and a time to sell. :P
.
Post by
bearmug
Blizz has seen zero growth since the end of TBC. Now with Cata the number are shrinking..
Ups and downs are true, but you forget something. 12 million. WoW broke thru to mainstream gaming crowd to get such big jumps, and there are not many areas left for new big jumps. It's still a lot.
Post by
Berelain
Yeah, I'm struggling to to see what people were expecting - some kind of endless linear growth?
Wow is the first game to ever achieve subscriber numbers like this. We have no model for what might be expected. The doomsayers are extrapolating meaninglessly. Sure, numbers have dropped a bit but it's a 7 year old game.
Wow is not going to die off any time soon. Even if you assume that we've reached a peak and subscriber numbers will now dwindle off it has another 7 years. The ongoing running of games such as EQ2 however proves the nonsense in that notion.
At the end of the day if you've stopped enjoying the game, stop playing. If you still enjoy it, carry on playing. Making decisions about whether you should still play based on some notion of whether it's currently on an up or a down trend is absurd. Almost as absurd as trying to infer reasons for these up and down ticks in an environment for which we have no direct comparison.
Post by
Kinbuzz
WoW has had a HUGE decline in subscribers during cata
I need evidence. How much of a decline and where do you get your information?
Post by
lonewarrior
WoW has had a HUGE decline in subscribers during cata
I need evidence. How much of a decline and where do you get your information?
WoWhead has posted the numbers from Acti/Blizz released reports. You can search either one for the numbers.
PS..did anyone even click on the link I posted about those so call advertised numbers that Blizz likes to use all the time.
Just to quote a line out of it for those to lazy to click
How is it possible that they have 11.5M "Active Subscribers" but less than 7M upgraded to WOTLK (released almost 2 years ago) and 7.4M upgraded to Burning Crusade? Let alone, 4.5M players are still playing Vanilla WoW, and there are over 11M players that have been apparently active for over 6 years. Something funny is definitely going on.
Post by
Kinbuzz
WoWhead has posted the numbers from Acti/Blizz released reports. You can search either one for the numbers.
PS..did anyone even click on the link I posted about those so call advertised numbers that Blizz likes to use all the time.
Just to quote a line out of it for those to lazy to click
I'm sorry. I actually read them. I just thought they needed a repost so other people didn't have to read every post through.
Post by
229054
This post was from a user who has deleted their account.
Post by
lonewarrior
this is a second(update on the original) link within the first article link I posted, just in case anyone missed it.
http://daeity.blogspot.com/2011/02/active-subscriptions-revisited-part-1.html
Post by
144978
This post was from a user who has deleted their account.
Post by
montezuma7
Wow will never die. The high was something like 12 million subs, they're probably more at 9-10 now. They could lose 90% of their players and still be the largest mmo in the world. Even a million subs is enough to fund expansions. Remember every expansion that comes out is subs x $50 (or whatever it goes for in Asia). A new expansion might break 50 mil in development costs, but I doubt it. The old republic is rumored to cost about 135 million to develop and that's a brand new game.
I think that people feel like wow maybe in decline because their friends don't play it, but that's because players are getting older. Think of all the new college freshmen every year who get hooked on mmorpgs lol. There's your new subs wow! None of my friends play any more but that's cus we're all pushing 30 and having kids now.
Post by
Brykor
Considering that mmorpgs such as Everquest are still pumping out expansions, I do not believe that WoW will ever die. People 50 years from now might be playing it for nostalgia.
This is of course if the world doesn't go to crap in that time.
Post by
Fredrick
When Blizzard Let's It
Post by
902613
This post was from a user who has deleted their account.
Post by
mijoruk
WoW won't die anytime soon so stop asking and make threads about it.
Post by
Ahmi
Next year. Look at all the hate comments for MoP. There wasn't nearly this many with TBC, WotLK or cata.
It was exactly the same.
Post by
Copperpants
WoW will die when Blizzard shuts down the servers.
Or maybe when they start bribing players to commit to a year subscription like they are now doing with the MOP beta access and exclusive mount.
They must have some concerns by making that offer, don't ya think?
Post by
Zz0mg
Next year. Look at all the hate comments for MoP. There wasn't nearly this many with TBC, WotLK or cata.
It was exactly the same.
Wow, are you serious?
Post by
Nathanyal
WoW will die when Blizzard shuts down the servers.
Or maybe when they start bribing players to commit to a year subscription like they are now doing with the MOP beta access and exclusive mount.
They must have some concerns by making that offer, don't ya think?
They aren't forcing the players to sub to that if they don't want to. Its a marketing ploy. Blizz knows that from the people that sign it they get wow subs for the next year from that person. They also know that they will play D3 since its free and will get people to keep playing that.
One thing is sure though, it is one hell of a deal. I plan on playing wow for the next year anyway, so I'll get the mount in 4.3, D3, a new pet and Beta access to MoP. If you plan on getting D3, it still a good idea to pay for wow as you get a discount. Calculated it with my friend and if you do the two 6-month package and planned on getting D3 anyway, you end up paying $8 a month for that year for wow. Even if you do the monthly deal, you wind up paying $10 a month.
Post by
144978
This post was from a user who has deleted their account.
Post by
xaratherus
WoW will die when Blizzard shuts down the servers.
Or maybe when they start bribing players to commit to a year subscription like they are now doing with the MOP beta access and exclusive mount.
They must have some concerns by making that offer, don't ya think?
No, not really. It's a common business tactic used throughout the corporate world. Car dealerships giving away cruises to attract customers, furniture stores offering a free flat screen TV with the purchase of a furniture set, insurance companies offering free AAA memberships for new coverage...
I'm not sure why people are acting like this is a sign of something dire. It's a sound and wholly common marketing strategy.
Wow, are you serious?
Yeah, he is, and I agree with him. If you were to go back to the Wowhead archives and take a look at the front page posts for the several months after the announcement of WotLK and Cata, there's no marked difference in the level of people complaining. The same holds true on the official forums. And it's pretty much the same for every MMO that I've played.
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