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Oozing bag. - Disgusting ooze
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Post by
609117
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Post by
Varaconn
Gutta said:
As said it is still there.
The drop chance is not cumulative. Killing one does not increase the chance it will drop on the next one. You could kill one and get it, then again you could kill 2000 and not see hide nor hair of it.
As some are fond of saying random loot is random.
I remember the first troll I killed in hinterlands gave me robes of insight. Imagine my surprise. My first and only world epic drop in three years of playing.
Indeed, if you take a statistics course you'll learn that you can, theoretically, flip a coin and get heads 1000 times and the chance will still be 0.5.
Indeed if you PASSED that statistics course, you might notice that the relevant probability is the chance of actually getting heads 1000 times (or in this case killing 100 oozes with a 10% drop chance each and not getting the drop even once).
That chance is: (1 - .1)^100 = 0.0000266 or .00266%, or a 99.997% chance to get at least one.
If you killed 100 oozes and didn't get your drop, it doesn't drop.
You're confusing chance and probability.
Post by
Thror
In Ragnarok Online, the Hydra Card, which reduced any damage from humans by 30%... which was pretty good for PvP... had a 0,02% drop rate. Good luck farming.
Post by
Varaconn
At least it's not like Diablo II, for example, where everything is a world drop, and bosses/uniques just have tweaked chances of dropping certain types of items. This way, you know which mob to farm, at the very least.
Post by
MrSCH
for 4k gold and slowly dropping it by 100g each week until it finally sold at 2.5k gold.
Heh so you had that thing on that ah for like 2 years?
I don't think 15 weeks is 2 years...
Ow yeah, lol. I didn't really try and work it out; just saw 1.5k difference, saw 150 weeks for some reason xD
Still, 15 weeks is long enough :P
Post by
203406
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Post by
mecheye
I love probability!
Whats the chance of your house being hit by a nuke tonight at midnight?
50 / 50
It will, or it won't.
Ta-dah!
Post by
Rilgon
It's still there. I've managed to farm about seven of these pets now. I got two in the first hour I ever tried and decided to AH them, made a fair bit of gold so I went looking for more.
Wow, no %^&*ing wonder it took me two goddamn years to get mine. You're hoarding all the luck.
Post by
126884
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Post by
508201
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Post by
karsa
for 4k gold and slowly dropping it by 100g each week until it finally sold at 2.5k gold.
Heh so you had that thing on that ah for like 2 years?
15 weeks is 2 years now?
=
nice job calling out someone that all ready owned up to their mistake.
Post by
MrSCH
nice job calling out someone that all ready owned up to their mistake.
Best thing is I said that I thought it was 150 weeks for some reason. Which wouldn't even be 2 years. So I was wrong about being wrong.
Post by
TheReal
I love probability!
Whats the chance of your house being hit by a nuke tonight at midnight?
50 / 50
It will, or it won't.
Ta-dah!
My wife does this when the weatherman announces the percentage chance for rain. Drives me nuts!
Also, does your radio station's DJ ever tell you there's a 70% chance for rain today when it's already %^&*ing raining?
Post by
91278
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Post by
MrSCH
This aspect of probability is only true if you assume no other conditions.
Someone's got to say it so....
other conditions?
Is it raining? There's rain. Is there no rain? There. both conditions met on the 'will it rain' thing. For the nuke, same. Is there a nuke? If there is no nuke, there is no nuke. There are no middle grounds.
Odds of rolling a 6 11 times in a row? 50/50. Either you roll a 6, 11 times, or you don't. There is no other 'condition'. If you roll a 5, then you didn't roll a 6, and you fall on one side of the 50/50 divide. Roll 11 5s. same side. roll 11 6s? Other side.
Excuse punctuation it's late!
Post by
TheReal
Just...wow...
Post by
524425
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44284
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127599
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318653
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